Riyadh, Saudi Arabia — Jadwa Investment expects the Saudi non‑oil economy to grow by 4.3% in 2025. Strong domestic demand, credit expansion, and diversification will drive this growth. The non-oil sector remains resilient despite global trade uncertainty and weaker oil prices.

Non‑Oil Growth Driven by Credit, Spending, and Reform

Real non‑oil GDP grew 4.9% year-on-year in Q1 2025. Jadwa attributes this to firm household spending and robust corporate lending. These trends suggest continued momentum into Q2.

Looking ahead to 2026, Jadwa projects 4.4% non-oil growth. The outlook reflects expected interest rate cuts and easing trade headwinds.

Brent Oil Forecast: $67 per Barrel

Brent crude is forecast to average $67 per barrel in 2025. That’s a 16% drop from 2024. Jadwa cites rising supply and flat demand as key drivers.

Despite lower oil prices, Saudi oil output will rise 5.5% to 9.45 million daily barrels. By year-end, output could hit 10 million barrels per day.

Jadwa also forecasts a wider budget deficit at 4.3% of GDP. The current account will likely swing to a 3.6% deficit. However, Saudi Arabia’s low debt and high reserves provide a strong buffer.

 

 

The Saudi Standard’s View: Non‑Oil Resilience and Strategic Balance

Jadwa’s Saudi non‑oil economy 2025 forecast confirms the efficacy of Vision 2030 reforms. A growth rate exceeding 4% demonstrates that reforms in private-sector credit, tourism, and public investment are delivering results, despite global headwinds from trade tensions and high rates.

The expected drop in Brent to $67 highlights a deliberate strategy: moderate oil revenues support needed fiscal discipline without forcing austerity. Combining stable reserves, prudent expenditures, and a diversified non-oil engine reduces macro vulnerability.

Investors should note the interplay: higher oil output can balance lower prices, while strong non‑oil growth sustains employment, revenues, and private-sector confidence. As global conditions evolve, Saudi Arabia appears prepared to weather shocks without reversing its diversification drive.

Moving forward, key risks include sustained oil price declines or global recession. However, the projected interest rate cuts and stable credit growth offer a supportive backdrop. Jadwa’s forecasts suggest a resilient economy entering a more balanced growth phase in 2025.

 

Related: Browse Saudi investment news and trends

See more on Saudi oil outlook and economic growth forecasts