Riyadh, Saudi Arabia — S&P Global has forecast that Saudi Arabia’s economy will grow by an average of 3.5% annually from 2025 to 2028. This projection is part of the agency’s “Saudi Credit Trends: Changes Underway” report, which cites sustained investment momentum under Vision 2030 as a key driver. The S&P Saudi GDP growth forecast reflects the rising influence of non-oil sectors and private-sector engagement on long-term growth.

S&P Saudi GDP growth forecast supported by banking and fiscal resilience

The report also predicts an average fiscal deficit of 4.4% of GDP during the same period. While oil remains a significant revenue stream, the growth forecast indicates increased domestic and foreign investment as central expansion drivers. S&P emphasized that continued non-oil growth and policy execution could support a future upgrade of Saudi Arabia’s sovereign credit rating.

In addition, the agency highlighted the strength of Saudi Arabia’s financial system. The banking sector remains resilient, and corporate credit ratings are expected to stay stable. Despite operational challenges in the insurance sector, all S&P-rated Saudi insurers maintain investment-grade ratings.

Global Consensus Builds Around Saudi Growth Path

The 3.5% S&P Saudi GDP growth forecast closely aligns with upward revisions by other global institutions. The International Monetary Fund recently raised its 2025 forecast for the Kingdom to 3.6%, while a Reuters poll projects 3.8% growth. These updates follow a sharp rebound from just 1.3% in 2024, driven by accelerating project rollouts and improved oil supply dynamics.

S&P’s outlook also mirrors regional momentum. Gulf economies are benefiting from both rising oil production and diversification. Vision 2030 remains the central engine of growth for Saudi Arabia, fueling investment in infrastructure, tourism, technology, and logistics.

 

 

THE SAUDI STANDARD’S VIEW: Vision 2030 Anchors Growth, Reinforces Credibility

S&P Global’s 3.5% growth forecast through 2028 confirms confidence in Saudi Arabia’s reform path and fiscal policy. The alignment with IMF and Reuters projections marks global recognition of the Kingdom’s transformation.

  • Vision 2030 is producing results: Giga-projects, public investment, and regulatory reforms are now tangible drivers of growth. The impact spans tourism, construction, and logistics, turning long-term plans into current economic engines.
  • Non-oil momentum gains strength: S&P’s focus on non-oil GDP reflects a successful shift toward financial services, real estate, and manufacturing sectors. This transition supports credit stability and could trigger future upgrades.
  • Deficits reflect strategic choices: The 4.4% fiscal deficit is linked to proactive capital deployment, not imbalance. Saudi Arabia’s strong balance sheet and evolving revenue base support fiscal resilience.
  • Institutional foundations remain strong: Resilient banks and highly rated insurers underpin broader economic confidence. These institutions enable credit expansion, risk transfer, and long-term business planning.

S&P’s medium-term view validates the direction of Saudi policy. The Kingdom can outperform baseline forecasts and deliver strategic, sustainable growth with disciplined spending, human capital development, and regulatory clarity.

 

Related Reading